The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors' sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said. In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24.
More than half (56 per cent) of chief economists expect the global economy to weaken in 2024, with most saying the pace of geo-economic fragmentation will accelerate, according to the latest "Chief Economists Outlook" released on Monday at the World Economic Forum (WEF). The report indicates that the global economic prospects remain subdued and uncertain. Challenges include tight financial conditions, geopolitical rifts, and the rapid development of generative artificial intelligence (AI).
With high credit growth and healthy asset quality, listed commercial banks are expected to report steady growth in earnings during the fourth quarter ended March 2024 (Q4 FY24). Profits are expected to grow at 9.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and net interest income (NII) by 8.7 per cent in Q4 FY24, according to Bloomberg analysts' estimates. According to Motilal Oswal Securities, while bank credit growth has been robust, deposit growth has also gathered pace.
The top 10 fund houses are slowly losing ground to their smaller peers, even as they continue to hold the lion's share in the total assets under management (AUM) of the mutual fund (MF) industry, according to an analysis of the quarterly AUM for the past six years. These fund houses had an average AUM of Rs 38.8 trillion in the third quarter (Q3) of 2023-24, which is 79 per cent of the total industry AUM of Rs 49.2 trillion. The share has come down steadily since Q3 of 2019-2020, when the share stood at 84 per cent.
Entities may be given about a year to tune their systems to comply with norms of Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2023, Minister of State for Electronics and IT Rajeev Chandrasekhar said on Wednesday. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of consultation with the industry, Chandrasekhar said the Data Protection Board and guidelines for the eight rules, including consent management, will be put in place within a month. "Industry wants some more time for age-gating, different timelines for transition for different data fiduciaries.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led central government will use the unorganised workers database - e-Shram portal - to provide the benefits of various government programmes to the nearly 300 million workers over the next five years, if it is voted to power for the third consecutive term in the upcoming general elections. "We have registered unorganised workers on the e-Shram platform. "We will reach out to the e-Shram registered 'shramik bandhu' and help them avail the benefits of various government programmes that they are eligible for," the manifesto of the party read.
Amid a debate on the basis of a monetary policy stance, one may be curious enough to know how non-food retail inflation has behaved over the years in India. Let the eager souls catch a glimpse of facts. In the past 10 years, non-food inflation came down below 4 per cent on two occasions - pre-Covid period of 2019-20 and now in the first four months of the current financial year (FY25).
As a year of despair and darkness comes to a welcome end, Rediff.com wishes every reader all the very best for a HEALTHY, HAPPY, PEACEFUL, PROSPEROUS, SAFE AND SUCCESSFUL 2021.
In the first 100 days of the next government, the ministry of skill development and entrepreneurship (MSDE) is planning to introduce new-age courses to suit the changing industry needs. It is set to standardise skilling courses to facilitate easier migration of workers and introduce counselling and mentorship on the Skill India Digital Hub (SIDH) portal. On Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi - during a Cabinet meeting - was reported to have instructed his ministers to draft roadmaps for the first 100 days and next five years of the next government.
The government also announced that healthcare cover under the Ayushman Bharat insurance scheme will be extended to all ASHA and anganwadi workers and helpers.
Chief executive officers (CEOs) across sectors have expressed intentions to expand capacities, expecting the government's target to invest a record Rs 11.11 trillion on infrastructure development will act as a catalyst for a jump in consumer demand. "With the government planning a capex of Rs 11.11 trillion, private sector investment will come in a big way. Companies will be preparing for it right from today," H M Bangur, chairman of Shree Cement, told Business Standard. For the past few years, the investment scene in India has been dominated by government capital expenditures; private investments in the manufacturing sector have remained muted.
'IPOs have performed exceptionally well, with a notable increase in average ticket size from Rs 800 crore in the last financial year to around Rs 1,300 crore in this financial year.'
Interim Budget, the US Federal policy decision and quarterly earnings will be the major drivers for stock markets which may also see some consolidation this week, say analysts. Besides, investors would also focus on the trading activity of foreign investors and global trends for further cues. From the macroeconomic front, the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled to be announced on Thursday.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee (MPC) decided to stick to the course on bringing retail inflation to the target of 4 per cent while voting for maintaining status quo in the April review, except external member Jayanth Varma who voted for a 25 bps cut in the repo rate. "I believe that the extant monetary policy setting is well positioned," RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said in the minutes of the policy review, which came out on Friday. "Monetary policy transmission is continuing and inflation expectations of households are also getting further anchored.
'Lack of self-control over spending leads to a credit card debt trap.' 'People think they have money and spend using a credit card, but when it's time to pay, they realise they don't have the money.'
The number of fraud cases reported by private banks outnumbered those by public sector banks for the second consecutive year.
GST collections rose 28 per cent to Rs 1.49 lakh crore on an annual basis in July on the back of economic recovery and measures taken to curb tax evasion, the government said on Monday. In July, 2021, Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections stood at Rs 116,393 crore. The collections in July this year is the second highest since the introduction of GST in July 2017, the ministry said in a statement.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have pulled out $3.5 billion from India's equity markets so far this month. The selling comes on the back of election-induced volatility and the rotation of flows from India to China, where stocks are available at half the valuations. If the selling pressure remains at the current level, this will be the highest FPI pullout since January 2023.
The RBI's decision to tighten norms for unsecured personal loans is credit positive because lenders will need to allocate higher capital for such loans, thus improving their loss-absorbing buffers, Moody's Investors Service said on Monday. The Reserve Bank last week raised risk weights on unsecured retail loans, credit cards and lending to non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) by 25 percentage points. Moody's said unsecured loans have been growing rapidly in the past few years, exposing financial institutions to a potential spike in credit costs in case of sudden economic or interest rate shocks.
'The risk is in not being invested and missing out on an upmove.'
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained its inflation projection for current fiscal year at 6.7 per cent amid global geopolitical developments triggered by Russia-Ukraine war. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the impact of inflation globally is weighing heavily on the domestic market. For September quarter of 2022-23, RBI projected retail inflation at 7.1 per cent.
Payouts to key management personnel in non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are under the banking regulator's scrutiny. Top industry officials said this is a follow-through on the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) circular of April 29, 2022, which asked NBFCs in the "middle" and "upper" layer of its four-tiered scale-based regulatory (SBR) framework to put in place a board-approved compensation policy.
Who says romance is dead in the age of coronavirus?
Buying one's dream home requires planning, funds, and these days, putting on an AI-enabled virtual reality (VR) headset. Realtors are increasingly providing customers an immersive experience, courtesy generative artificial intelligence (GenAI), mixed reality, and metaverse. For realty consultancy Anarock group, AI and machine learning (ML) are enabling predictive market analysis, facilitating virtual property tours, and improving property management through predictive maintenance.
India SME Forum, an organisation for small and medium businesses, has called for creating a dedicated fund of Rs 5000 crore for the export capacity development, promotion, and marketing of Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in its Budget recommendation. The forum for MSMEs with over 98,000 members said that to enhance India's global competitiveness and increase its market share in global exports, it was "crucial to increase the number of active exporters and enable at least 3-4 lakh first-time micro, small, and medium exporters while supporting them in promoting Indian products globally."
Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would largely dictate terms in the equity markets this week amid a lack of major domestic triggers, analysts said. Markets may face near-term consolidation due to elevated valuations, they noted. "While the previous week was predominantly shaped by developments in the US Federal Reserve policy, attention will now shift to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on December 19," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
Equity markets would take cues from domestic inflation data announcement, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Tuesday for 'Diwali Balipratipada'. "As we enter a truncated week with Muhurat trading on Sunday, global cues will play a pivotal role in shaping the market direction.
Retail inflation eased to an 11-month low of 4.83 per cent in April as prices of some kitchen items declined though overall food basket firmed up marginally, according to a government data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation was 4.85 per cent in March. It was 4.7 per cent in April 2023.
Kareem, a chef in Bahrain, came in contact with the woman over the Internet.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said India is likely continue to face challenges in raising longer-term growth potential and creating enough jobs for its young population in the absence of higher trade openness. In its report on South Asia sovereigns, Moody's said compared with other South Asian economies, India appears to be in a better position to deepen its integration in global value chains, attract FDI and increase exports. The country has better macroeconomic fundamentals, more stable politics and a more developed export sector.
Mobile wallet adoption is surging in India and swiftly becoming a primary payment option, surpassing traditional methods like cash and cards. Over the next few years, payments via mobile wallets in India are likely to surpass the Rs 531.8 trillion mark in 2028, witnessing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3 per cent between 2024 and 2028, according to GlobalData - a London-based leading data and analytics company. The value of mobile wallet payments in India, as per a GlobalData report, grew at a CAGR of 72.1 per cent between 2019 and 2023 to reach Rs 202.8 trillion ($2.5 trillion) in 2023.
The Supreme Court has sought responses of the Centre, CBI, the Enforcement Directorate and others including 13 states on a plea alleging fraudulent activities by motivational speaker Vivek Bindra and his firm Bada Business Pvt Ltd. Accusing the social media influencer and his firm of tricking people into giving them their money through a ponzi scheme that promised big returns, the petition sought a direction to the Centre to constitute a special investigation team (SIT) of the CBI to probe the case. A bench comprising MM Sundresh and SVN Bhatti took note of the submissions of senior advocate Vikas Singh, appearing for Shubham Chaudhary and 19 other petitioners, that Bindra and his firm have duped several people of their money.
The government on Saturday said a person who is eligible for Aadhaar can enroll using iris scan in case fingerprints are unavailable. The statement comes after Minister of State for Electronics and IT Rajeev Chandrasekhar intervened to ensure the enrollment of a woman, Josymol P Jose, in Kerala who could not get enrolled for Aadhaar as she did not have fingers. A team from the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) visited Jose at her home in Kumarakam, Kottayam district, in Kerala, the same day and got her Aadhaar number generated, the statement said.
'We expect market consolidation and recommend buying during market dips.'
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and movement of oil benchmark Brent crude would dictate terms in the domestic markets this week, analysts said. Equity markets, which fell nearly 3 per cent last week, may face volatile trends amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. "This week marks the September month Futures and Options (F&O) expiry, which is expected to bring about volatility in the market," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Continuing on the fiscally prudent path, the Modi government in the interim Budget refrained from announcing populist measures, which will help it trim the fiscal deficit to 5.1 per cent of the GDP next fiscal and 4.5 per cent in FY26.
The revamped Special Economic Zone (SEZ) law is unlikely to see the light of the day before the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, two people aware of the matter said. The commerce department had sought the Union Cabinet's nod to bring amendments to the existing SEZ Act, 2005 late last year. The plan, thereafter, was to introduce the Bill in the winter session of Parliament. Cabinet's approval remains pending.
With digital adoption fast gaining currency, India is likely to see retail digital payments double to $7 trillion by 2030 from current levels, a study by Kearney and Amazon Pay said. In the report 'How Urban India Pays', Kearney-Amazon Pay said strong adoption of digital payments in online purchases has potentially led to a permanent shift in consumer behaviours, fuelling offline adoption as well.
The combined market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies hit an all-time high of Rs 343.48 lakh crore on Monday, amid a rally in equities after the BJP registered victory in assembly polls in three Hindi heartland states. Following the sharp uptick in the market, investors became richer by over Rs 5.81 lakh crore on Monday. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 1,383.93 points, or 2.05 per cent, to close at a lifetime high of 68,865.12.
Showing the effect of the slowdown in global economic activity, the equity foreign direct investment (FDI) into India declined sharply to $13.9 billion in April-July 2023 from $22.04 billion a year ago. The net FDI, inflows minus outflows, declined from $17.28 billion in April-July 2022 to $5.70 billion in April-July 2023 on account of moderating gross FDI and a rise in repatriation. Gross FDI into India moderated to $22.0 billion during April-July 2023 from $29.6 billion a year ago, according to Reserve Bank of India data.
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